Alberto Photos

Florida's Big Bend area did take on substantial water as this photo from Cedar Key -- and this one from the village of Steinhatchee -- point out.

But Glenn Reynolds of Instapundit does have a little fun with some of the cable TV hype of Alberto by posting a couple of photos while he vacations in nearby Apalachicola. First, Alberto's "devastation" to his vacation home. And then the storm's "awful aftermath."

I'm glad we can laugh about this one a little bit.

Is Alberto a Sign of Things to Come?

Hurricane experts say Alberto's early appearance doesn't tell us much. June storms are not typical, although last year, we had two -- hence the question of whether Alberto means 2006 will be another rough year for the Gulf Coast.

Was Tropical Storm Alberto an anomaly or an ominous sign of storms to come?

The answer is: neither.

"Alberto is a very classic June tropical storm," said Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. ...

Storm watchers will note that Alberto looked nearly identical to Tropical Storm Arlene, which kicked off the 2005 hurricane season.

Like Alberto, Arlene formed in the northwestern Caribbean, nearly reaching hurricane strength, and then weakened before making landfall June 11 in the Florida Panhandle.

Arlene ushered in what would become the most active Atlantic hurricane season in 154 years of recorded history. The 28 named storms caused at least 2,280 deaths and $100 billion in damage.

So is Alberto an indicator of an active season?

"There is absolutely no correlation between the start date of the hurricane season and the level of activity that follows for the rest of the season," said Frank Lepore, a spokesman with the National Hurricane Center. ...

Scientists are forecasting that the 2006 season could produce as many as 16 named storms, including six major hurricanes.

Forecasters predict that warmer ocean water combined with lower wind shear, weaker easterly trade winds, and a favorable wind pattern will create more and bigger storms.

"Alberto could merely be a shot over the bow," said Jamie Rhome, a forecaster with the hurricane center.

Trivia coming from this report: What is the earliest hurricane to strike the United States? Alma, a deadly Category 3, hit the Florida Panhandle on June 9, 1966 after killing 73 people in Honduras and 11 in Cuba. Six Americans died.

Storm Watch No. 1.4, 2006:TS Alberto Comes Ashore

Rain, wind and flooding ... your typical tropical storm results. Sorry to disappoint the cable news networks, but Alberto was too disorganized to be much of a threat.

The first tropical storm of the hurricane season was less than advertised Tuesday, bringing rain, gusty winds and some thigh-high street flooding to Florida's Gulf Coast without blowing up into the hurricane forecasters feared.

There were no immediate reports of any serious injuries or deaths.

But emergency planners said the preparations were not in vain: Alberto allowed them to hold a not-so-dry run of their disaster plans. And the rains snuffed out some of the wildfires that have bedeviled parched central Florida over the past few months. ...

The storm's center came ashore around noon near Adams Beach, about 50 miles southeast of Tallahassee. Its winds were 40 mph, down from 65 mph in the morning and well below the 74 mph hurricane threshold that forecasters thought it might cross.

Prepare yourselves now, Gulf Coasters, every tropical storm or hurricane this year will be like the great shark attack media frenzies of 2002.

Storm Watch No. 1.3, 2006: Hurricane Alberto?

From the Associated Press (via the Gainesville Sun):

A hurricane warning was issued for parts of Florida's Gulf Coast on Monday as the first named storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season gained strength as it headed toward the state, forecasters said. The warning from Longboat Key near Sarasota to the Ochlockonee River south of Tallahassee means Tropical Storm Alberto was expected to produce hurricane conditions within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Longboat Key to Englewood.

Whether Alberto will remain at hurricane strength when the eye reaches land is still uncertain. The current track still has the Big Bend region of Florida as the strike zone, although the areas to the east of the center -- Tampa/St. Pete -- can expect heavy rain and high winds. Northern Florida and southeastern Georgia can also expect substantial rainfall. Inland tornadoes are possible.

The lastest weather bulletin is here.

UPDATE: Alberto is now 4 mph shy of a Category 1 hurricane.

The link to the Gainesville Sun article changed. It is now corrected.

UPDATE TO THE UPDATE: I just realized the Sun story requires registration. This irks me to no end, so I'm linking to the Tampa Tribune instead.

And the Trib version offers this piece of trivia:

If Alberto came ashore as a hurricane, it would be the earliest hurricane in 40 years to hit the United States, according to the National Hurricane Center. The earliest on record is Alma, which in 1966 struck the Florida Panhandle on June 9 - the ninth day of the hurricane season.

Storm Watch No. 1.2, 2006:Tropical Storm Alberto

The first named storm of 2006 remains on track to move across the Big Bend region of Florida. Alberto is disorganized, and he has slowed in the last 24 hours.

Most of Florida's west coast was under a hurricane watch Sunday as Tropical Storm Alberto spun over the Gulf of Mexico, threatening to bring heavy rain in the next few days.

By midday, the first named storm of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season had maximum sustained wind near 45 mph, up 10 mph from early in the morning, but it was not likely to grow into a hurricane, the National Hurricane Center said.

"We do not have any significant changes," said Lixion Avila, a senior hurricane specialist. "The system remains poorly organized."

Alberto is a lopsided tropical storm with the most intense wind and rains massed on the eastern edge of the system, Avila said. The first of the storm's rains swept across the Florida peninsula Sunday with no major reports of damage.

The storm contains significant rain, with 30 inches possible for Cuba and 8 inches for Florida. From the looks of things, most of the U.S. East Coast will receive a nice spring soaking.

Storm Watch No. 1.1, 2006: Tropical Depression 01 Declared

The first tropical depression of 2006 is now on the western tip of Cuba. Early forecasts predict it will become a named tropical storm, but will not reach hurricane strength.

Over the next three days, the system was expected to move through the Yucatan Channel into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, then toward Florida where it could make landfall somewhere between South Florida and the western tip of the Panhandle by Tuesday, forecasters said.

At 9 a.m. EDT, the depression's center was located about 50 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba. It was moving north-northwest about 12 mph.

"This is where you typically expect to get them at this time of year," Beven said. "This is not at all unusual."

If it does reach tropical storm strength, it will become Alberto. AccuWeather makes this forecast:

However, we do believe that this feature will be of tropical storm strength as it heads toward the Florida Big Bend or the upper Florida West Coast on Monday. Water temperatures are cooler off the coast of the Big Bend Florida and the upper Florida West Coast. These cooler waters combined with the stronger winds aloft could cause the whole system to become elongated causing it to weaken. But this is mostly speculation and there is a lot of uncertainty about this feature.

This map shows the Big Bend area, to help you non-Floridians gather your bearings. The National Hurricane Center has the five-day cone also moving over the Big Bend area, coming across land at tropical storm strength sometime Tuesday morning.

The good news coming out of these reports is that the Gulf waters are not as warm this year as last. Warm water feeds these storms, particularly in the Loop Current.

The tropical depression may not amount to much more than some heavy rain. But for those of you in hurricane-affected areas, take this as a clue to assemble your storm kits now for the season ahead.

Storm Watch No. 1, 2006:Possible Tropical Depression in the Caribbean

This report from Dan Kottlowski, expert senior meteorologist with AccuWeather:

We continue to closely monitor surface and satellite observations over the northwest Caribbean. Surface data Friday afternoon shows a possible low pressure center near 17 north and 86 west. Surface pressures are down to at least 1007 millibars northeast of the center with winds of 20-25 mph. around this estimated position. The National Hurricane Center has tasked an air plane to investigate this area tomorrow. However, given the way pressures are falling we could have a tropical depression before the plane reaches that area tomorrow. So, residence and visitors to the Yucatan, Belize, western Cuba and islands of the northwest Caribbean should keep a close watch on this system. Water temperatures are very warm in this area and a developing system could intensify very quickly.

For more, visit the always excellent AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center.

What is a Hurricane?

Hurricane = Tropical cyclone ...

A cyclone is a circulation in the atmosphere with lower atmospheric pressure that rotates counter-clockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere.

We define a tropical cyclone as a non-frontal [absence of the warm and cold fronts typically associated with winter-type storms], "warm-core" storm with a sustained wind speed of at least 34 knots (kt) or 39 mph that forms in or near the tropics.

"Warm-core" means that, on average, the temperature near the center of the cyclone is warmer than the surrounding environment. A tropical cyclone’s strongest wind speeds are generally located about 1500 feet above the surface and the strength of the wind decreases both above and below that level (Franklin et al. 2003).

However, it remains strong enough at the surface to be able to cause considerable damage. This wind structure -- stronger winds in the lower atmosphere than in the upper atmosphere (upper troposphere) -- is a direct consequence of the warm-core structure.

Tropical cyclones usually form within 25° of the Equator, but they can form as far as 40° from the Equator (Elsberry 1995), which is as far north as New York City or as far south as Melbourne, Australia. Regardless of where it originates, in order to form a tropical cyclone requires a relatively small, closed circulation, that is, a low-pressure area less than 500-1000 km in diameter, within 5000 feet of the surface that has a substantial concentration of thunderstorms inside it. It is not currently well understood what quantifies "substantial concentration of convection" in terms of its extent over time or space.

Frequent thunderstorms day after day within this closed circulation concentrate precipitation and the formation of precipitation itself heats the atmosphere. If the closed circulation is sufficiently strong and small and the thunderstorms occur close enough to its center, the heat is focused within the circulation by both the rotation of the circulation itself and the rotation of the Earth (Coriolis deflection).

Read all of Dr. Robert Hart's hurricane primer here. (Note: It is a PDF file.)

2006 Hurricane Predictions

The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration is predicting another active hurricane season for this year, albeit not as active as 2005.

"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," added retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

On average, the north Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes. In 2005, the Atlantic hurricane season contained a record 28 storms, including 15 hurricanes. Seven of these hurricanes were considered "major," of which a record four hit the United States. "Although NOAA is not forecasting a repeat of last year's season, the potential for hurricanes striking the U.S. is high," added Lautenbacher.

High. It sounds like we'll be busy at Hurricane Central this year, although we would gladly sit this one out.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall.

Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf and the shape of the coastline, in the landfall region. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average. (Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center)

Category One Hurricane: Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage.

Category Two Hurricane: Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.

Category Three Hurricane: Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

Category Four Hurricane: Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

Category Five Hurricane: Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required.

2006 Hurricane and Tropical Storm Names

We'll be very familiar with several of these between now and November. Here are the names for the 2006 Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms:

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William

Naming factoids:

1. The National Hurricane Center produces the list.

2. Q and U names aren't used.

3. The list repeats every six years.

4. However, names of the worst hurricanes are retired for at least 10 years. For example, 2005 hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma are all off the list for the next decade -- and I suspect Katrina is gone for good.

Day One

Today, June 1, is the first day of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the first day of the Hurricane Central blog.

Why start a hurricane blog? First, I have been fascinated by the weather since I was a child. The interest peaked early, fueled by the violent tornadoes that would blast through the South during early spring. One of my most vivid childhood memories was the so-called Super Outbreak of tornadoes in April 1974, when 148 twisters killed more than 300 people. One of those killed was my sister's classmate.

I also remember my first hurricane. My uncle was stationed in South Carolina at the time, and we were visiting his family for vacation. Near the end of our stay -- there were maybe one day left -- a hurricane was threatening the Carolina coast. Our parents rushed to pack us up, and we evacuated in the middle of the night. My father's only words: "There's no way in hell I'm staying here another week." Needless to say, my uncle was my mother's brother.

In adulthood, hurricanes and tropical storms entered my professional life. I was a reporter and editor for one of the largest newspaper chains in the United States. I worked at publications all along the Gulf Coast region, including southern Louisiana. We stayed in hurricane mode, it seemed, for a good month or two of the summer. I camped out on a newsroom floor a dozen times, and trekked out to flooded swamps and riverbank areas more times than I care to remember.

When you buy "hurricane clothes" and stock up on emergency supplies each year, you can become complacent. That is, until you look on the radar one morning after a late, boring City Council meeting and see a big blob of red and yellow coming across Cuba. Your heart starts to race a little and the blood pumps a little faster. Finally, a real "story" that doesn't involve zoning variances or street paving.

I ran that race for about 10 years, before I switched over into public relations. Even then, though, I couldn't escape hurricanes. Some of my early clients were large oil-and-gas and shipping companies. I knew these people well and hurricanes' impact upon their business, as I had covered many of them back in the day.

Last year, I entered the blogosphere with a site called Breakfast at Tiffany's. It has nothing to do with cooking, jewelry or the movie. Half pop culture, half politics mostly. But, as hurricane season became especially rough on the Gulf Coast, I found myself blogging more and more about these storms. As I did, I would say to myself, "This doesn't really fit my blog." But it interested me, so what the hell?

Then came Katrina. As you can see from the BaT archives from August and September, I blogged a lot of about her. I once lived in the New Orleans area, and I was profoundly affected by what happen to the Crescent City those few weeks.

I also remember how angry I became at national media coverage of the event. When these air-headed anchors would say (as Katrina veered more toward the Mississippi coastline), "New Orleans dodged a bullet tonight," I would turn red. "Don't these godd*mn idiots know anything about hurricanes?" I screamed to a friend one night. This thing is hundreds of miles wide. The eye is not coming across New Orleans, but there's going to be hell to pay down there. And I don't want to even think what will happen if those levees don't hold."

And the levees didn't.

So in way too many words, that's why this blog begins today. I can't promise daily posts or expert meteorology (although I do seem to have a keen sense for looking at the three-day path and predicting, within a few miles, the landfall city). What I can promise is semi-educated reporting and analysis and, I hope, a place where people can go to learn more about these amazing creatures of nature. It would be grand if others in the strike zones would contribute frontline stories -- but that's the big picture. Let's start small and see what happens.