Storm Watch No. 1.1, 2006:
Tropical Depression 01 Declared
The first tropical depression of 2006 is now on the western tip of Cuba. Early forecasts predict it will become a named tropical storm, but will not reach hurricane strength.
Over the next three days, the system was expected to move through the Yucatan Channel into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, then toward Florida where it could make landfall somewhere between South Florida and the western tip of the Panhandle by Tuesday, forecasters said.
At 9 a.m. EDT, the depression's center was located about 50 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba. It was moving north-northwest about 12 mph.
"This is where you typically expect to get them at this time of year," Beven said. "This is not at all unusual."
If it does reach tropical storm strength, it will become Alberto. AccuWeather makes this forecast:
However, we do believe that this feature will be of tropical storm strength as it heads toward the Florida Big Bend or the upper Florida West Coast on Monday. Water temperatures are cooler off the coast of the Big Bend Florida and the upper Florida West Coast. These cooler waters combined with the stronger winds aloft could cause the whole system to become elongated causing it to weaken. But this is mostly speculation and there is a lot of uncertainty about this feature.
This map shows the Big Bend area, to help you non-Floridians gather your bearings. The National Hurricane Center has the five-day cone also moving over the Big Bend area, coming across land at tropical storm strength sometime Tuesday morning.
The good news coming out of these reports is that the Gulf waters are not as warm this year as last. Warm water feeds these storms, particularly in the Loop Current.
The tropical depression may not amount to much more than some heavy rain. But for those of you in hurricane-affected areas, take this as a clue to assemble your storm kits now for the season ahead.
Over the next three days, the system was expected to move through the Yucatan Channel into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, then toward Florida where it could make landfall somewhere between South Florida and the western tip of the Panhandle by Tuesday, forecasters said.
At 9 a.m. EDT, the depression's center was located about 50 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba. It was moving north-northwest about 12 mph.
"This is where you typically expect to get them at this time of year," Beven said. "This is not at all unusual."
If it does reach tropical storm strength, it will become Alberto. AccuWeather makes this forecast:
However, we do believe that this feature will be of tropical storm strength as it heads toward the Florida Big Bend or the upper Florida West Coast on Monday. Water temperatures are cooler off the coast of the Big Bend Florida and the upper Florida West Coast. These cooler waters combined with the stronger winds aloft could cause the whole system to become elongated causing it to weaken. But this is mostly speculation and there is a lot of uncertainty about this feature.
This map shows the Big Bend area, to help you non-Floridians gather your bearings. The National Hurricane Center has the five-day cone also moving over the Big Bend area, coming across land at tropical storm strength sometime Tuesday morning.
The good news coming out of these reports is that the Gulf waters are not as warm this year as last. Warm water feeds these storms, particularly in the Loop Current.
The tropical depression may not amount to much more than some heavy rain. But for those of you in hurricane-affected areas, take this as a clue to assemble your storm kits now for the season ahead.
posted by Jake McCafferty at 6:52:00 AM
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