Storm Watch No. 6.2, 2006:Bermuda In Florence's Strike Zone

Tropical Storm Florence isn't strengthening, but it could become a hurricane by this weekend. Current tracking doesn't show her headed toward the States, but she's coming right down on top of Bermuda -- at hurricane force.

Florence had sustained wind near 50 mph Wednesday, over the 39 mph threshold for a tropical storm. National Hurricane Center forecasters said it could strengthen into a hurricane, with winds of at least 74 mph, as early as Thursday.

At 5 p.m. ET, the storm was centered about 770 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, or about 1,900 miles southeast of Miami, and was moving west-northwest about 9 mph.

"The concern would be Bermuda at this point, how close the destructive force winds will move toward it," said Dave Roberts, a forecaster at the hurricane center. Florence's center was about 1,240 miles southeast of Bermuda on Wednesday.

The NHC will update Florence's status again tomorrow at 5 a.m.

Storm Watch No. 6.1, 2006: Florence Is Born

A new tropical storm, Florence, is now in the Atlantic and should reach hurricane strength in a couple of days.

Florence had top sustained wind near 40 mph, 1 mph over the 39 mph threshold for a tropical storm, and it was expected to slowly intensify to hurricane strength, according to the National Hurricane Center

"Our forecast does have it becoming a hurricane by Friday morning -- minimal hurricane, Category 1," said Mark Willis, a meteorologist at the hurricane center.

Hurricanes have sustained wind of at least 74 mph; Category 1 storms have top sustained wind of up to 95 mph.

It was still too early to tell if it would hit the United States, Willis said.

The five-day track is hard to read. Florence could keep breaking to the right, which means she would stir up out in the Atlantic until reaching cooler waters. But if she goes against the current prediction and stays straight, she could end up coming ashore in the general area where Ernesto arrived: the Carolina coastal region.

Storm Watch No. 5.4, 2006:Ernesto Brings The Rain

Ernesto came ashore just below hurricane strength. But he is packing a wet punch inland.

Ernesto weakened to a tropical depression Friday, but the storm still packed enough punch to dump more than half a foot of rain, knock out power to more than 300,000 customers and force hundreds of people from their homes.

And it was far from finished. On the eve of the Labor Day weekend, the storm prompted flash flood watches for wide sections of Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and central New York.

"Nobody is relaxing until long after the storm has passed," Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine said.

You have to love the "half a foot of rain" description. That sounds so much better than "six inches." And then there's this note, as we are now into September with only one hurricane (Ernesto reached Category 1 strength days ago, but not for long.):

Also Friday, a team of hurricane forecasters in Colorado lowered their expectations for the 2006 Atlantic season, predicting only five hurricanes instead of the seven previously forecast.

Well, sure ... c'mon you can't change your prediction with two months gone. It's like waiting until the third quarter and the Cowboys are leading the Eagles 31-10 and saying, "I know I said the Eagles might win, but I'm going with the Cowboys now."

UPDATE: We stick to Atlantic hurricanes here, but if you're in the western and southwestern United States, you might be interested in two Pacific storms: Hurricane John and Tropical Storm Kristy.

Storm Watch No. 5.3, 2006:Ernesto Toys With Hurricane Status

As of the National Hurricane Center's last public advisory, Ernesto is only 4 mph away from hurricane strength. That is unlikely, but possible. Regardless, in just a few hours, he will come ashore the Carolina coastline. And he's a wet one.

Ernesto's wind was less a concern than the threat of flooding. Parts of North Carolina were already drenched by thunderstorms that began Wednesday. Ernesto was expected to bring half a foot of rain to some areas.

"We need some rain around here -- just not all at once," said Jean Evans, a convenience store worker on North Carolina's Holden Beach.

The National Hurricane Center also warned of a storm surge of 3 feet to 5 feet in the Carolinas.

In the latest three-day track, Ernesto will weaken back to a tropical depression before the storm center leaves North Carolina. The wind may not be as strong, but this slowing will result in a good soaking for Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania throughtout Friday and Saturday.

Storm Watch No. 5.2, 2006: Ernesto Brings Rain But Not Much Else

Tropical Storm Ernesto (now a tropical depression) huff and puffed, but once over South Florida, he mostly just rained.

Back in South Florida, with some squalls still in the region, Ernesto did not deliver much more than widespread rain -- and light rain at that.
''Mother Nature has been very kind,'' said Yolanda Aguilar, West Miami's city manager.

Said Tony Carper, Broward County's emergency management director: "I guess we got lucky.''

No reports of significant damage surfaced. No widespread power outages occurred. One woman was killed in an auto accident linked to the storm, but no other Ernesto-related deaths or serious injuries were reported.

Ernesto is now entering the Atlantic, where it is expected to regain tropical storm strength. The current three-day track has Ernesto's center back over land Thursday night, somewhere along the costal border of North and South Carolina.

It's going to be a wet holiday weekend for much of the Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes area. But, except for a few spoiled picnics, that's good news.

Katrina: One Year Later

Cross-posting from Breakfast at Tiffany's ...

Nothing insightful today, nothing prophetic, on this the first anniversary of Hurricane Katrina and her devastating arrival on the U.S. Gulf Coast. I'm burned out on news coverage, and frankly, I don't want to relive the whole ordeal.

I was back in New Orleans in June. The tourist areas along the riverfront were lively, but not like the old days. Other parts of the city looked like they had been bombed.

New BaT readers can check out my Katrina coverage from late August through early September. I think this post still seems up my feelings best.

Money is never the complete answer. You also need integrity and common sense. The people of Louisiana deserve better from their elected leaders. But only they can hold the politicians accountable, and in the past, they haven't. Instead, they vote for legacy politicians like Mary Landrieu, whose qualifications consist of not much more than a famous last name.

Perhaps this will wake up the voters of Louisiana, who for so long have laughed about their inept politicians and their third-world image.

It's not very funny now, is it?

And a few months later, they re-elected Ray Nagin as mayor. The man he beat: Mary Landrieu's little brother Mitch. The Crescent City may rebuild one day, but this won't happen in a year, or two or three. Maybe in 10 years. Maybe.

But let's forget about politics for now. Instead, say a little prayer for the almost 2,000 people who lost their lives to Katrina and her aftermath. Then say one for the people in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama who escaped death but who have been emotionally wrecked, those who are finally recovering and those with the pioneering American spirit to rebuild.

God bless all y'all.

Storm Watch No. 5.1, 2006: Ernesto Weakens; Carolinas On The Lookout

The mountains of eastern Cuba have broken up Ernesto enough to prevent him from forming as a hurricane off the Florida coast. After spending about 12 hours tomorrow giving the Sunshine State a good soaking -- up to 10 inches of rain -- the storm will move into the Atlantic, where regeneration into a hurricane is possible.

Storm Watch No. 5.0, 2006: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Ernesto

Ernesto can't quite make up his mind ... tropical storm or hurricane? The track is also an odd one. Most of the computer models have Ernesto hooking over South Florida -- although maybe not at hurricane strength -- then picking up power again in the Atlantic before striking somewhere between Georgia and North Carolina.

People in those areas -- as well as those along the Gulf of Mexico (because you can never tell) -- should be preparing now. A Category 1 storm can still produce flooding and and winds up to 95 mph. Power outages are likely.

The National Hurricane Center has all the latest.

OK, So Where Were We?

Let's see ... we missed B, C and D. Ah, yes, we're up to E.

Ernesto.

I had intended to build up this blog, but too much summer travel -- and a relatively inactive storm season -- made it too easy to push it into the background.

But with this one, we could see the first U.S. hurricane of the season. So let's get Hurricane Central moving again.